Prediction on every regular season game
Based on the finalized 2026 schedule and the current roster trajectory under Steve Sarkisian—specifically the return of Arch Manning for his senior (or RS Junior) campaign—here is the “Realist” prediction for the Texas Longhorns.
The 2026 Season Outlook
- Final Record: 10–2 (6–2 SEC)
- Verdict: A College Football Playoff lock, but one that took a few bruises in the SEC meat grinder.
- The Narrative: This is the “Arch Redemption” year. After a solid but inconsistent 2025, Manning is now the polished, undisputed general of an offense loaded with portal weapons like Cam Coleman (WR) and Hollywood Smothers (RB). The defense, led by Anthony Hill Jr., is fast but thin in the secondary.
Game 1: vs. Texas State Bobcats
- Date: Sept 5
- Prediction: Texas 52, Texas State 10
- Summary: Sarkisian doesn’t mess around with the in-state G5 schools anymore. The new transfer running back duo (Smothers and Brown) runs wild for 200+ combined yards. Manning plays three quarters, purely to get reps with his new WR1, Cam Coleman.
- Box Score Projection:
- Manning: 18/22, 240 yds, 3 TDs
- Smothers (RB): 12 car, 115 yds, 2 TDs
- Defense: 4 Sacks, 1 INT
Game 2: vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
- Date: Sept 12
- Prediction: Texas 31, Ohio State 27
- Summary: The defining game of the early season. After losing in Columbus in 2025, DKR is absolutely electric. The Buckeyes’ secondary struggles to contain the speed of Ryan Wingo and Emmett Mosley. It’s a shootout, but Manning orchestrates a game-winning drive with 2:00 left on the clock, hitting Wingo on a deep post route.
- Box Score Projection:
- Manning: 26/38, 345 yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
- Wingo (WR): 8 rec, 140 yds, 1 TD
- Defense: Anthony Hill Jr. forces a fumble on the final drive.
Game 3: vs. UTSA Roadrunners
- Date: Sept 19
- Prediction: Texas 45, UTSA 17
- Summary: A classic “hangover game” start. Texas comes out sluggish after the Ohio State emotional high, leading only 17-10 at halftime. Sarkisian chews them out, and they drop 28 points in the 3rd quarter.
- Box Score Projection:
- Smothers (RB): 15 car, 90 yds, 1 TD
- Coleman (WR): 6 rec, 85 yds, 2 TDs
Game 4: at Tennessee Volunteers (Loss #1)
- Date: Sept 26
- Prediction: Tennessee 34, Texas 28
- Summary: The First Loss. Texas visits Neyland Stadium for the first time in the SEC era, and the noise is deafening. The Vols’ pass rush exposes Texas’s new Right Tackle, Melvin Siani, forcing Manning into rushed throws. Texas rallies late, but a false start on 4th & 5 kills the comeback. A brutal, physical reality check.
- Box Score Projection:
- Manning: 21/40, 260 yds, 2 TDs, 2 INTs
- Sacks Allowed: 5
- Defense: Allows 200+ rushing yards.
Bye Week (Oct 3)
Game 5: vs. Oklahoma Sooners (Dallas)
- Date: Oct 10
- Prediction: Texas 38, Oklahoma 24
- Summary: Coming off the bye and a loss, Texas plays angry. The “Red River Rivalry” is rarely a blowout, but the talent gap is visible this year. Arch Manning finally gets his signature Cotton Bowl moment, running for a 40-yard TD that breaks the Sooners’ back in the 4th quarter.
- Box Score Projection:
- Manning: 280 passing yds, 60 rushing yds, 4 Total TDs
- Defense: Colin Simmons (Edge) records 2.5 sacks.
Game 6: vs. Florida Gators
- Date: Oct 17
- Prediction: Texas 41, Florida 20
- Summary: Florida is rebuilding (again), and their secondary is too slow for Texas. Sarkisian attacks the perimeter with screen passes to Raleek Brown, who looks like a cheat code in open space. The game is effectively over by the 3rd quarter.
- Box Score Projection:
- Raleek Brown (RB): 8 rec, 110 yds, 1 TD
- Manning: 20/25, 210 yds, 2 TDs
Game 7: vs. Ole Miss Rebels
- Date: Oct 24
- Prediction: Texas 48, Ole Miss 45
- Summary: The wildest game of the year. Lane Kiffin’s offense torches the Texas secondary, but Ole Miss has zero answer for Texas’s run game. It turns into a “last possession wins” scenario. Texas kicks a field goal as time expires to survive a scare at home.
- Box Score Projection:
- Total Offense: Texas 580 yds, Ole Miss 550 yds
- Smothers (RB): 180 rushing yds, 3 TDs
Game 8: vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs
- Date: Oct 31
- Prediction: Texas 35, Miss State 13
- Summary: A sleepy Halloween game. Mississippi State tries to muddy the game with a slow tempo, but their offense is anemic. Texas puts it on cruise control, resting starters in the 4th.
- Box Score Projection:
- Defense: Holds Miss State to <250 total yards.
- Backups: QB2 gets significant snaps.
Game 9: at Missouri Tigers
- Date: Nov 7
- Prediction: Texas 27, Missouri 17
- Summary: A tricky road game in Columbia. It’s cold, windy, and ugly. The passing game is off, so Texas relies on the offensive line and the bruising running style of Hollywood Smothers to grind out a win. Not pretty, but it counts.
- Box Score Projection:
- Manning: 180 yds, 0 TDs (Managed game)
- Smothers: 25 carries, 140 yds, 2 TDs
Game 10: at LSU Tigers (Loss #2)
- Date: Nov 14
- Prediction: LSU 31, Texas 24
- Summary: The Second Loss. Night game in Death Valley. Texas enters ranked in the Top 5, but LSU plays possessed. The crowd noise causes communication breakdowns on the O-Line. Texas has a chance to tie it late, but a controversial pass interference non-call ends the drive. The “SEC road voodoo” strikes again.
- Box Score Projection:
- Manning: 22/35, 290 yds, 3 TDs, 1 Fumble
- Defense: Surrenders big plays on 3rd down.
Game 11: vs. Arkansas Razorbacks
- Date: Nov 21
- Prediction: Texas 42, Arkansas 14
- Summary: Texas takes out their frustration from the LSU loss on the Hogs. The Arkansas rivalry is heated, but they don’t have the athletes to keep up for 60 minutes. It’s a rout by halftime.
- Box Score Projection:
- Cam Coleman (WR): 3 TDs (Highlight reel game)
- Defense: 3 Turnovers forced.
Game 12: at Texas A&M Aggies
- Date: Nov 27 (Friday)
- Prediction: Texas 27, Texas A&M 23
- Summary: The Lone Star Showdown at Kyle Field. A&M is fighting for a bowl position; Texas is fighting for a Playoff seed. It’s a defensive slugfest. With 4 minutes left, trailing by 3, Arch Manning engineers a 12-play, 80-yard drive, capping it with a QB sneak for the win. Silence falls over College Station.
- Box Score Projection:
- Manning: Clutch 4th quarter performance.
- Anthony Hill Jr.: Game-sealing sack.
Regular Season Summary
- Record: 10–2
- Key Wins: Ohio State, Oklahoma, Texas A&M.
- Losses: Tennessee, LSU (Both tough road environments).
- Post-Season Status: Texas secures an at-large bid to the 12-team College Football Playoff, likely hosting a first-round game in Austin. Arch Manning is a Heisman Finalist.
